XRP Risks ‘Full Pump Retrace’ But $2.65 May Become a New Springboard

Key takeaways:

• After dropping 19% in three weeks, XRP faces strong resistance at $3.10-$3.00, with key support at $2.65.

• Whales have offloaded over 640 million XRP tokens since July 9.

• $2.65 aligns with the quarterly VWAP and 0.50 Fibonacci retracement: a drop below could undo the Q3 rally.

XRP (XRP) is undergoing a sharp correction after rallying to a yearly high of $3.65 on July 18. Since then, it’s down nearly 19%, struggling to reclaim the $3.10–$3.00 resistance zone.

On Saturday, prices briefly dipped to a key support range between $2.66 and $2.80 before bouncing back on Sunday, forming a higher low.

Data from CryptoQuant data indicates that the retracement appears to be driven in part by large holders exiting the market.

Related: XRP custody goes live for Korean institutions via BDACS amid ‘strong interest’

Over the past three weeks, XRP whale wallets, addresses holding significant amounts of XRP, have been steadily offloading their positions.

Between July 9 and Aug. 5, the 90-day moving average of whale netflows is currently negative 640 million XRP (valued at approximately $340 million), suggesting sustained distribution pressure that coincides with the recent price slump.

Analyzing XRP’s daily chart, prominent crypto trader Nebraskangooner says the altcoin could face a “full pump retrace,” a move where prices could revisit the base of the previous rally at $2.

XRP must hold $2.65 for a chance at new highs

The $2.65 level is crucial for XRP’s bullish market structure. The chart shows that this level previously acted as a significant resistance throughout H1 2025.

After finally breaking above in July, it flipped into strong support, a technical shift in structure. A sustained hold above this level is essential to preserve the uptrend narrative.

Crypto analyst Dom says that XRP was able to retain $2.80, a key initial area of interest, and currently steers clear of $2.65, which aligns with the quarterly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price).

Related: Will XRP repeat its 70% rally? Price nears classic fractal breakout

VWAP represents the average price of an asset traded over a period, weighted by volume, and is often used by traders to assess fair value. 

Dom cautions that any move below this zone would severely damage the chart, potentially invalidating short-term bullish continuation setups.

Additionally, technical analyst Mind Trader says that XRP has completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement from its $3.65 high. Historically, if the 50% level holds, a renewed push could target $4.15, i.e, a new all-time high.

However, if XRP breaks below $2.65, it risks slipping back into its previous range and potentially retesting $2, essentially undoing months of gains and signaling broader weakness.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.