Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis: ETF Inflows Plummet Amidst Elevated Futures and On-Chain Profitability

Peter Zhang
Jul 28, 2025 15:34

Bitcoin’s ETF inflows have dropped by 80%, yet futures positioning and on-chain profitability remain high. This divergence highlights potential market pressures, according to Glassnode.

Bitcoin’s latest market dynamics reveal a notable divergence between traditional financial instruments and crypto-native flows. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows have seen a sharp decline of 80%, while futures positioning and on-chain profitability metrics remain robust.

Spot Market Developments

Throughout the past week, Bitcoin’s spot price fluctuated within a newly established range of $104k to $114k. This movement followed a recent all-time high and led to a market-wide cooldown. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell sharply from 74.4 to 51.7, indicating buyer exhaustion. Additionally, spot trading volume decreased to $8.6 billion, reflecting reduced market participation.

Futures and Options Market Insights

The futures market continues to show strength with Open Interest rising slightly to $45.6 billion. Long-side funding payments increased, showcasing leveraged optimism. The options market saw a 2.2% reduction in Open Interest, yet the volatility spread surged by 77%, suggesting heightened expectations for price swings. The 25 Delta Skew has shifted from negative to slightly positive, indicating a mild bullish sentiment.

ETF Market Trends

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant reduction in net inflows, decreasing to $496 million, with trade volume dropping to $18.7 billion. Despite this decline, the ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio remains high at 2.4, pointing to substantial unrealized gains and potential profit-taking opportunities.

On-Chain Activity

On-chain indicators show mixed signals. The number of active addresses decreased to 708,000, and transfer volume fell by 23%. However, transaction fees increased and the Realized Cap Change rose to 6.6%, indicating continued capital inflows despite the overall market cooldown. The ratio of Short-Term Holders (STH) to Long-Term Holders (LTH) suggests a slight increase in speculative activity.

Market Sentiment and Profitability

Despite the recent cooldown, 96.9% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit. Both the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio have dipped, suggesting a reduction in profit-taking activities as the market reassesses its position. The potential for a market rebound exists, but fragility remains if negative catalysts arise.

For further insights, visit the complete analysis on the Glassnode website.

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