A spot XRP ETF is starting to look more likely as approval odds climb

Key takeaways:

• XRP’s falling wedge pattern signals a bullish reversal; 48% price surge potential.

• SEC’s review of WisdomTree’s XRP ETF may spark investor interest as approval odds jump to 84% on Polymarket. 

XRP price is forming a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a technical chart formation associated with strong bullish momentum following an upward breakout. Could this technical setup, coupled with the SEC’s review of a spot XRP ETF application by WisdomTree, signal the start of a rally to $3.40 and higher?

XRP falling wedge pattern targets $3.40

From a technical perspective, XRP (XRP) price could gain significant momentum if it breaks out of this falling wedge pattern.

In technical analysis, a falling wedge is a bullish reversal chart pattern that comprises two converging trend lines that connect lower highs and lower lows. This convergence indicates a weakening downward momentum. 

XRP price is currently retesting the resistance provided by the upper trendline of the wedge at $2.42. A break above this level will likely trigger a quick rise in price, with the bulls seeing the technical target of the wedge at $3.40, a 48% increase from current prices.

The relative strength index (RSI) has climbed to 47 from 31 on April 8, indicating that bullish momentum is building up.

However, to sustain the ongoing recovery, XRP’s price has to first hold the support at $2.20 and then overcome the resistance between $2.60 and $2.80.

Several analysts are optimistic about a rebound higher, with pseudonymous trader Cryptowzrd saying that a validation of a falling wedge could see XRP break out toward $2.90.

“$XRP closed indecisively and is still maintaining a falling wedge formation,” the trader wrote in a May 28 post on X, adding: 

“A breakout of this wedge will push markets toward the $2.80 resistance. Above that resistance, we will eventually get to a new all-time high.”

As Cointelegraph reported, XRP price must first break the key $2.48 resistance level to clear the path toward higher highs.

Spot XRP ETFs coming?

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially started reviewing the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) application by the WisdomTree XRP Trust, which may provide investors with exposure to XRP. 

The notice published by the SEC on May 27 initiates a 21-day public comment period and a 240-day review timeline, reflecting a structured evaluation of investor protection and market manipulation risks. 

The product would track the price of XRP through the CME CF Ripple-Dollar Reference Rate, giving investors indirect exposure without needing to hold the asset directly.

The betting odds for an XRP ETF approval by Dec. 31 now stand at 84% on Polymarket. Over the past month, the probability of approval has swung by 21% in favor of the YES side, from around 63% on April 22.

Bloomberg senior ETF analysts predicted an 85% chance of spot XRP ETF approval after the change in leadership at the SEC.

Approval of these funds could unlock institutional capital, amplifying demand for XRP and potentially driving prices toward $3-$8. Some analysts predict XRP price to go as high as $50 if major players like BlackRock step in.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.